Nigel Farage has announced he will run as Reform UK’s candidate in Clacton, after previously saying he would not stand in July’s general election.
The former UKIP and Brexit Party leader said he had changed his mind after spending time on the campaign trail, adding he did not want to let his supporters down.
The Essex seat, which was the first to elect a UKIP MP in 2014, has a Conservative majority of 25,702.
Mr Farage also revealed he was taking over from Richard Tice as Reform’s leader for the next five years.
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No, how do you really feel about him?
Let’s look at the upside. Farage is not going to win that seat, if his past performances are any indication. He’ll take a huge chunk off that Conservative majority in Clacton, which will make it easier for… Labour (if Electoral Calculus are correct) to take it. And Farage’s presence will boost Reform support across the rest of the country, because the man is an attention whore who will insist on being in the media at every opportunity. And that will cut Tory support in other “safe” Tory seats. But because the support is thinly spread across the whole country and Farage’s views are repellent to the majority of the electorate, Reform won’t win any seats.
Having been following the Electoral Calculus predictions for quite some time, the chances of my local Tory MP winning the seat seems to fluctuate with Reform support more than anything else. When support for Reform was at 17% a couple months ago, the Tory MP’s chances of losing the seat to Labour were 95%. When Reform support dipped to 10%, the incumbent’s odds of winning rose to almost 40%. So I welcome a splitting of the right wing vote.
I’m really conflicted with this one. He will definitely help further sink the Tory ship, and I’m all for that. But the announcement probably means he’ll be even more in the news, and let me tell you, I do not want to hear a single word from his nicotine stained, ale fumes breathing, frothing mouth.
Yeah, agreed with you there. I wish the media would stop covering every single thing the stupid prat says. His “party” has no MPs, yet for some reason gets more attention than both the Lib Dems and the Greens.
Don’t watch the news. Problem solved.
It’s not like it’s informing you of anything.
Having been following the Electoral Calculus predictions for quite some time, the chances of my local Tory MP winning the seat seems to fluctuate with Reform support more than anything else.
Yes, the Tories point at the large percentage of undecided voters who are former Tory voters and say they’ll get behind them as election day looms. However, it feels like a lot might be leaving it late to see how Reform shapes up. Now with Farage in charge (a sitcom about a lovable politician who just loves a pint or two), I could see that chunk of voters making their minds up and I reckon it’s bad news for the Tories.
I suspect at this point that many of the undecideds aren’t going back to the Tories no matter what. They’re just undecided about whether to vote Labour, vote Reform, or stay at home.
He’s been doing his calculations on what gives him the most leverage in some future move - possibly just leveraging this for more cash but I wouldn’t put it past him to be trying to wreck the Tories (I am in favour of that) in a bid to end up running them (A Bad Thing and the road to fascism). Also Russia may have stumped up some cash to mess with us.
edit: I suppose the play could be: become MP, get begged to run the Tory Party (as who else is there? Penny Mordaunt?), merge the parties, turn around their fortunes with a populist right wing agenda, defeat Starmer in the next GE and then fascism for all, possibly in parallel with Trump naming himself dictator in perpetuum.
This would be the 9th time he’s run as an MP for our parliament.
Ninth time unlucky hopefully 🤞
However, he wouldn’t have done this if his odds were good, so…
Yeah he’s a huge loser based on his track record alone.
Clacton is one of the most deprived seats in the UK so people there might just be desperate enough.
One the one hand, he wouldn’t change his mind unless he stood a good chance; on the other hand, he keeps running and losing despite, presumably, thinking he was a dead cert each time.
It’s all media attention to drive up his profile. If he actually got in he would never turn up and be a tiny little voice.
Clacton was predicted to be held the Tories, but only by 7%, with Labour in second (according to FT’s poll tracker). Farage standing throws that out completely, it’s safe to say.
Question is, will Labour voters lend the Tories votes to keep Farage out?
Now there’s a tricky one because Labour will also think that this splits the right wing vote, letting them sneak in.
True! We need some constituency-specific polling to know what’s going on, otherwise we’re just speculating! Where’s Ashcroft when you need him?
We need some constituency-specific polling to know what’s going on, otherwise we’re just speculating!
Indeed. I imagine there will be a scramble to dig into this one.
Where’s Ashcroft when you need him?
Up to no good?
Yeah, finding another Labour MP to smear, probably. But his polling is good!
Clacton was predicted to be held the Tories, but only by 7%, with Labour in second (according to FT’s poll tracker). Farage standing throws that out completely, it’s safe to say.
As Douglas Carswell held the seat from it’s creation in 2010 through his being Tory, UKIP (with it being a UKIP win in.the by-election he triggered by detecting and in the 2015 general election) and independent until the Tories won in 2017, it is probably the safest possible seat for Reform in the country and Farage could definitely swing it. It’s demographics trend towards older, white and deprived which is the target for Reform.
Howsabout this twat reforms us back into the EU
