A lot of people mock the fact than in a 12 team competition a whole 8 teams make it into the playoffs. But with the top four teams secured with 2 rounds to go all of the drama is now in who will finish ranked 5th-12th.

None of the teams ranked 9-12 are playing each other in the next two rounds, in a way that should significantly change their fortunes (barring 1 game) so I think its mathematically possible for any of them to actually qualify in 8th if the Drua lose both of their next two games.

So in a way a generous qualification serves to deliver 4 matches in he first week of the playoffs and ensures there’s something to play for all the way to the end of the round-robin.

So thinking of the bottom 6 teams…

  • The Highlanders have the Drua at home, then the Hurricanes away so should bank at least another 4 points putting them on minimum 27.
  • The Drua struggle away but have the Rebels at home in the last round so should pick up another 4 putting them up on 25.
  • The Force go away to the Reds, and then have the Brumbies at home so ordinarily you’d think two losses, but they are a real force at home and Kurtley Beale has helped ignite their attack - its plausible they pick up two wins so land anywhere from 23-27 points.
  • The Crusaders are highly unlikely to beat the Blues away this weekend, then have Moana Pasifika at home. MP were very competitive against the Hurricanes this weekend so I could see an upset but it really depends on if Scott Barrett is back or not. Maybe 19-20 points.
  • Moana Pasifika are at “home” to the Waratahs and away to the Cru so are probable 19 points, possibly 23.
  • The Waratahs injury rates are so high that even though Moana Pasifika’s “home” game won’t give them the edge a normal home game would they probably won’t win, and then they’re at home to the Reds who haven’t travelled well this year. Its possibly they pick up a couple of wins and end up on 20, if they got bonus points their ceiling is 22; but they’ve had a horrible season and its more likely they’ll only land on 12-14.

Based on what’s likely the current top 8 are the top 8; the most likely change is The Force getting up and dropping either the Highlanders or Drua out depending on which one of them win that match.

The top 4 are confirmed, but they all still have plenty to play for if they’re hoping to move through the playoffs and want to secure home advantage for more games. Games to watch are Chiefs-Hurricanes this weekend, and then Blues-Chiefs the following as that will decide who finishes where.

Also - the kiwi teams are going to be toughened / tired depending on how you look at it as Blues, Hurricanes, Chiefs all have some big games to play against other Kiwi teams heading into the playoffs.