The rouble has lost around a quarter of its value against the dollar since Putin sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022, as Western sanctions shrink Russia’s balance of trade and military spending soars.
It hit 101.7475 per U.S. dollar on Monday, its weakest point in almost 17 months and 30% down so far this year. Based on the cross rate , the year-to-date fall was 26.2%.
Putin has assumed the West will get bored and give up eventually. And Russia can just wait it out.
But, the West is getting to defang Russia for a generation, exfiltrate its best and brightest, and set itself up perfectly for out-competing Russia in the northern passages opening up due to climate change in the coming decades.
It baffles me that they didn’t predict this?
No matter the outcome of the war, Russia have suffered a loss that will take generations to recover from.
Yes, and loose humanitarian policy, like sending boys into machine gun fire.
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"The central bank has all the tools to normalise the situation in the near future and ensure that lending rates are reduced to sustainable levels.
On Monday, the bank said it saw no financial stability risks from the rouble’s weakening and gave another hawkish signal that a rate hike is possible soon.
The rouble has chartered a turbulent course since Russia invaded Ukraine, slumping to a record low of 120 against the dollar in March last year before recovering to a more than seven-year high a few months later, supported by capital controls and surging export revenues.
“The weaker rouble is a damning indictment of Russia’s war on Ukraine,” Timothy Ash, a London-based senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said in an email.
Last week, Russia effectively abandoned its budget rule, with the central bank halting the finance ministry’s FX purchases to try and reduce volatility.
“The central bank is not fully in control,” independent Moscow-based economist Ian Melkumov told Reuters, although it has aggressive tools that it is currently reluctant to use.
