Not sure how long we have until Biden pivots towards the OILagarchs (sorry) but the fact that US troops are apparently being pulled out of the kingdom is like a dream come true. We truly live in a time of qualitative change. The world is shifting polarity faster than the US can keep up. These maneuvers by OPEC+ are such a game changer because it softens the benefits that the US is getting from the situation in Europe. Anything that infuriates the US like this has to be worth paying attention to anyway.
The problem for the imperialists is that bombs can only reduce oil production further. They need a clean coup of the kingdom. So we might see some concern trolling about democracy and human right in SA, but it is a delicate situation that really accelerates the whole game.
One thing that is interesting to ponder is how many capitalists exactly would benefit from true crisis/collapse. Military industrial complex corps profit a ton off making weapons, but for things like nukes I’d imagine it’s more profitable to just have created and sold rather than in active demand for use because of the catastrophic blowback. Short term profits could be made, but even that would be extremely unstable.
What’s worrying is that often times once the escalation ladder is climbed enough by an empire like the US, it reaches a tipping point where the option is either accepting imperial decline or making a risky move. It’s not even like imperial decline would necessarily be bad for the workers in the US if it was done via socialism. It’s just that those in power come face to face with either going down, or risking bringing everyone down so they can maintain hegemony. In this specific situation, it seems likely to really start with recognizing Taiwan as independent. From there it’s very unlikely to de escalate.
In addition to what you said, the homo oeconomicus is a myth, capitalists often do not make rational decisions, especially when things are going to shit. And there is one widespread but terryfying trend in business when they don’t think “how much profit we can get” but “how do we stay ahead of everyone else” - i already read on reddit (also Rainer Shea mentioned it iirc) that China have only 200 nuclear warheads while US have thousands and that the first strike without mutual destruction is possible. Some of them already think that it is better to keep hegemony over partially ruined world than to be relegated to regional power in the prosperous one.