Currently the CPC is anticipating to move into a higher stage of socialism, or becoming a fully socialist country, by 2050. This will obviously change much of China, but how will it effect their foreign policy? China has famously had many bad takes in terms of foreign policy, but their post-Mao non-interventionism is important practically in retaining peaceful and favorable relations with global capital. They know that, even now, funding revolutionaries will only isolate them internationally.
But once China’s productive forces are high enough to allow the socialist transition then they no longer have to remain non-interventionalist for practical reasons. They could still try and justify it, but at that stage it would be hard for China to reject the internationalist principles of Marxism. The USSR could afford, to an extent, to wield hard power in support of revolutions and their governments, and of course without the USSR it could be argued that most socialist states would have collapsed soon after gaining state power. The soviets could do this due to their high level of industrialization, military, and global economic power.
When China is able to realize the same stage of socialism as the USSR they will undoubtedly be the largest and strongest economy in the world. While the west will still have some influence and power with which to threaten and hurt China over supporting international socialism, they ultimately won’t be in the position of power to isolate China then as they did with the USSR. So there could be even less consequences for Chinese interventionism at this stage. Do you believe, then, that China would adopt foreign policy similar to the Soviet Union? And could even create an international version of the Warsaw Pact, that is an economic and military alliance between socialist states?
From my ignorant non-Chinese POV, there appear to be neither a practical or ideological reason for a fully socialist China not to be internationalist.
I would say they have taken huge strides towards socialism in the Xi era alone. I do not find 2050 to be too outlandish, I mean I guess it depends how we qualify socialism.
Oh for sure, I didn’t mean it was an impossible goal, but it is still a difficult one.
The capitalist class in China will fight against wealth equality, even if they don’t have political power, they can use their wealth to influence people (and will receive support from outside of the country, from the west).
The last cold war, the US and the west were able to prevent revolution with concessions, as well as the idea that their people lived better lives than those in the USSR. But as China rises, and the rest of the world escapes from the grip of the west, the QOL of the people in the west will drop rapidly. It’s easy to talk about vague “freedoms” while comfortable. Much harder to do so when everyone is poor and struggling and the “authoritarian socialist state” of China’s people are living fantastic lives. I can’t imagine the western elite trying to backpedal on neo-liberalism, so they’re far more likely to just get aggressive and violent with China, which will probably delay China’s development.