According to findings published Thursday morning by Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media, the Republican incumbent is locked in a statistical tie with two Democratic challengers. Pollsters asked a group of 1,315 registered Texas voters during the period of Jan. 13-15 who they would support if Cruz ultimately faced either U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, or State Sen. Roland Gutierrez, D-San Antonio.
While it was the second highest midterm turnout in Texas in 20 years, it was down 7% from the 2018 midterm. So momentum turned around even though it was above historical average. We need to beat 2018 turnout. If we can beat 2020 turnout (Biden receive more votes in Texas than he did in New York in 2020), then we have a real chance to make a statement. We have to make that statement to get the kind of national investment in the state in 2026 to have a chance at getting turnout high enough to win the flip governor, lt governor, and attorney general. And we need to flip those in order to have a chance to undo the gerrymandered maps and get a representative legislature.