Labor Day is now over and we move into the full political calendar.
I’ve put together a listing of the Republican Primary calendar, with dates, delegates and current polling so you can see everything in one place.
As we move out of the Primaries and into the General, I’ll set up similar charts for the Presidential race and the Senate races. I’m not sure I personally have the juice to track 435 House races. :)
I’m seeing competing results on the number of delegates, so some states are more accurate than others. As I learn more, I will update the post.
There are a total of 2,467 Republican Delegates up for grabs, 2363 Pledged and 104 Unpledged. Unpledged delegates are bolded below.
1234 delegates (easy to remember!) are needed to win the nomination. Pledged delegates are obligated to support the candidate nominated by their Primary or Caucus. Unpledged delegates can support whoever they would like.
2 states (Wyoming and Pennsylvania) have both Pledged and Unpledged delegates, they are divided with a / mark.
Poll Data comes from fivethirtyeight.com, I’ve selected the poll that is both the most recent AND has the most complete slate of candidates. It didn’t seem fair to compare polls that only had Trump / Desantis vs. a poll with 9 or 10 candidates.
Some of these polls are SUPER old though, from before when Desantis announced, take them with a pound of salt. Will update regularly.
One interesting takeaway - Beyond Trump and Desantis, Mike Pence is the most popular 3rd choice, being listed 11 times and Niki Haley is just behind at 8 times.
If you are familiar with my You Are Here posts for Trump trial dates, those are NOT included here for the simple reasons that a) I didn’t want the added clutter, and b) with the exception of the E. Jean Carrol damages ruling on 1/15, there’s no way the trials will be over in a day. They will roll on for months.
Updated 9/11/2023
Date | State | Type | Delegates | Poll Date | Trump | Desantis | Other |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
January 15th | Iowa | Caucus | 40 | 9/2/2023 | 51 | 14 | Haley - 10 |
(January) | New Hampshire | Primary | 22 | 8/26/2023 | 47 | 10 | Haley - 10 |
February 8th | Nevada | Caucus | 26 | 6/26/2023 | 52 | 22 | Christie - 3 |
February 24th | South Carolina | Primary | 50 | 17-Aug | 48 | 14 | Scott - 14 |
February 27th | Michigan | Primary | 55 | 1-Aug | 61 | 13 | Pence - 7 |
(February or March) | Virgin Islands | Caucus | 3 | (No Polling) | |||
March 2nd | Idaho | Caucus | 32 | (No Polling) | |||
March 3rd | D.C. | Primary | 19 | (No Polling) | |||
March 4th | North Dakota | Caucus | 29 | (No Polling) | |||
March 5th | Alabama | Primary | 49 | 14-Jan | 35 | 53 | |
March 5th | Alaska | Primary | 28 | (No Polling) | |||
March 5th | Arkansas | Primary | 40 | 31-Aug | 58 | 29 | |
March 5th | California | Primary | 169 | 24-Aug | 55 | 16 | Haley - 7 |
March 5th | Colorado | Primary | 37 | 16-Aug | 86 | 14 | |
March 5th | Maine | Primary | 20 | 22-Mar | 45 | 19 | Cheney - 7 |
March 5th | Massachussetts | Primary | 40 | 28-Mar | 59 | 18 | Pence - 10 |
March 5th | Minnesota | Primary | 39 | (No Polling) | |||
March 5th | North Carolina | Primary | 75 | 5-Jun | 44 | 22 | Haley - 7 |
March 5th | Oklahoma | Primary | 43 | 27-Mar | 38 | 29 | Haley - 6 |
March 5th | Tennessee | Primary | 58 | 14-Jun | 61 | 12 | Pence - 8 |
March 5th | Texas | Primary | 162 | 30-Jul | 48 | 13 | Scott - 5 |
March 5th | Utah | Caucus | 40 | 7-Aug | 27 | 19 | Pence - 9 |
March 5th | Vermont | Primary | 17 | 4-Feb | 85 | - | Weld - 6, De La Fuente - 1 |
March 5th | Virginia | Primary | 48 | 6-Aug | 47 | 13 | Youngkin - 9 |
March 9th | Guam | Caucus | 9 | (No Polling) | |||
March 12th | Georgia | Primary | 59 | 16-Aug | 57 | 15 | Pence - 4 |
March 12th | Hawaii | Caucus | 19 | (No Polling) | |||
March 12th | Mississippi | Primary | 39 | 20-Aug | 61 | 22 | Christie - 6 |
March 12th | Missouri | Primary | 54 | 8-Feb | 38 | 35 | Haley - 8 |
March 12th | Washington | Primary | 43 | (No Polling) | |||
March 19th | Arizona | Primary | 43 | 2-Aug | 58 | 11 | Christie - 6 |
March 19th | Florida | Primary | 125 | 21-Aug | 58 | 23 | Christie - 4 |
March 19th | Illinois | Primary | 64 | 24-Aug | 53 | 10 | Haley - 6 |
March 19th | Kansas | Primary | 39 | 15-Feb | 30 | 17 | Pence - 9 |
March 19th | Ohio | Primary | 78 | 17-Jul | 64 | 9 | Ramaswamy - 12 |
March 23rd | Louisiana | Primary | 46 | 13-Aug | 75 | 10 | Pence - 2 |
April 2nd | Delaware | Primary | 16 | (No Polling) | |||
April 2nd | New York | Primary | 91 | 20-Jun | 61 | 31 | Haley - 9 |
April 2nd | Rhode Island | Primary | 19 | 31-Aug | 54 | 38 | |
April 2nd | Wisconsin | Primary | 41 | 8-Jun | 31 | 30 | Pence - 6 |
April 18th - 20th | Wyoming | Primary | 26/3 | 10/7/2022 | 91 | - | Walsh, Weld - 0 |
April 23rd | Pennsylvania | Primary | 16/51 | 2/11/2022 | 87 | - | Walsh, Weld - 2 |
April 30th | Connecticut | Primary | 28 | (No Polling) | |||
May 7th | Indiana | Primary | 58 | 12/11/2022 | 39 | 28 | Pence - 13 |
May 14th | Maryland | Primary | 37 | 19-Feb | 33 | 27 | Hogan - 18 |
May 14th | Nebraska | Primary | 36 | (No Polling) | |||
May 14th | West Virginia | Primary | 31 | 22-May | 54 | 9 | Pence - 5 |
May 21st | Kentucky | Primary | 46 | 10-May | 70 | 14 | Pence - 4 |
May 21st | Oregon | Primary | 31 | (No Polling) | |||
June 4th | Montana | Primary | 31 | 12-Aug | 52 | 15 | Ramaswamy - 6 |
June 4th | New Jersey | Primary | 49 | 16-Jan | 93 | - | Weld, Walsh - 4 |
June 4th | New Mexico | Primary | 22 | 3-Jan | 87 | - | Walsh - 8, Weld - 5 |
June 4th | South Dakota | Primary | 29 | (No Polling) | |||
July 15th to 18th | Republican National | Convention | 7/18/2024 |
A couple states De Santis is ahead or competitive, a couple not so much right now. Doesn’t look like anyone is really a consistent third place.
Nate Silver always said the same about national polls: although the trending can show changes in temperature that will affect competitive states.
Ahead in Alabama, but that poll is from January so I wouldn’t count on it, and there’s another recent poll which has Ramaswany in 2nd and Desantis in 3rd.
3 others he’s behind just a couple of points.