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Ariadne (@[email protected])
climatejustice.socialAttached: 1 image
Don't want to admit we've blown handling the #ClimateCrisis? Just change the definition! In 2021, the official definition of more than 1.5 °C of #GlobalWarming changed, did you know that? Exceeding the #ParisAgreement no longer means "in any given year", but
"... the Paris agreement target was clarified in 2021 as being the middle of a 20-year period during which the average global temperature hits 1.5 °C above the average temperature between 1850 and 1900. “This data doesn’t mean that we have breached the lower 1.5 °C safety limit of the Paris agreement, because that will apply to the long term,” says Rogelj."
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02995-7
"Earth’s average 2023 temperature is now likely to reach 1.5 °C of warming - But to breach the Paris agreement’s limit, the heating must be sustained for many years."
"Earth is hurtling towards its average temperature rising by 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. One climate model suggests that the likelihood of reaching that threshold in 2023 is now 55%.
The 1.5 °C figure was a preferred maximum warming limit set by the United Nations in the landmark 2015 Paris agreement on climate change. Climate scientists use different models to make predictions. In Breaching the Paris limit requires a long-term trend of warming of 1.5 °C or more, but some research groups tracking average annual temperatures in isolation are already predicting 1.5 °C of warming this year. In May, a World Meteorological Organization report said that there was a 66% chance that the average annual temperature would breach 1.5 °C of warming between 2023 and 2027."
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency #Klima #Klimakrise #Climate #Emissions #CO2 #WMO #COP28 #ClimateDiary
It’s not nearly as common today, but occasionally someone will still make a comment about global warming and scientists being wrong. And I’ll get to say, “yes, they were wrong. Average temperature is increasing faster than the initial forecasts.” IPCC 2018 report didn’t look the greatest, and it included effects of a carbon sequestering process that hasn’t been invented yet.
At this point, we know the world will look different in 50 years (where water is, where crops are grown, where floodplains are). Avoiding major changes is now impossible. BUT, it’s a continuum. We still have control over it being a new struggle to overcome vs a major catastrophe.
I was reading lots of buzz about the IPCC report and had an opportunity to visit a glacier in Alberta. On the hike to the glacier, they had signs showing where the glacier was over the years. At first, there would be a sign saying “1890” and 100 meters farther, a sign reading “1920”. Then it was “1940” and a hundred meters away “1960”. Then it became “2004” and 100 meters away “2008”. I forget the exact spacing, but it was very obvious that the glacier is melting at an accelerating rate. That plus the IPCC report was my realization that climate change is happening, and we’ve passed the period where it’s only observable on instruments. Most people are entering into the phase where it has real effects on our daily lives.