Top U.S. House Republican Kevin McCarthy could face an untimely end to his role as speaker if party hardliners oust him, for averting a costly government shutdown on Saturday with a stopgap bill that drew more support from Democrats than Republicans.
There is no threat in the motion to vacate. I doubt they follow through. Potential outcomes:
The vote for a few days and are forced to give up and KM remains speaker.
GOP members from moderate districts decide there future is more secure if they join the Democratic Party and Jeffries gets the gavel.
The house remains without a speaker until the session ends.
There is no possible outcome where a more conservative member gets the gavel. None.
The threat is #3. From the perspective of the Freedom Caucus, Congress being paralyzed and unable to act is a win condition.
Number 3 is an unstable condition that will quickly collapse into scenario 1 or 2. There are 18 gop members from districts Biden won in 2020. They can get elected as moderate dems easily if they want.
Game theory wise it goes like this. They call the motion and a speaker vote process starts. No winner (#3). Dems work quietly to see if they can forge a majority(#2), KM works quietly to try and pull a few dems. Getting dem votes for McCarthy is almost impossible (he needs too many and there just aren’t a lot of marginal dem members). If word gets out that either of those scenarios are looking fruitful, the freedom caucus will fold at the next vote (#1)
The likelihood of them having to fold after a day or two of votes and re-seat McCarthy is 9 in 10 or better. That other 1 in 10 is speaker Jeffries speaking for a new dem majority of 1 or 2 seats.
From their perspective, if they don’t follow through, they will be worried they will be flanked by those that will call them cowards. Also, if they cave, they lose the power they had.
They are not good tacticians, but blowing things up is their thing, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to remove him and leave the house without a leader.