If we’re successful, then we’ll see an influx of spam and corporate influence. We’ll have to make filters and blocks easy and effective, and in some way automated.

If we can meet that challenge, we’ll thrive; if not, we’ll whither and die.

I don’t really have a fantastic prediction, because I don’t feel like the major factors are really foreseeable at this point.

I think a big factor is what happens with Reddit and Twitter, since the Threadiverse and Mastodon are obvious alternatives.

Another is how well other alternatives, like Bluesky and Threads do.

I think that it’s hard to call those factors.

I doubt that Mastodon or the Threadiverse, at least, will die soon. I think that they’ve got enough mass that even without any major influx, they could keep going.

I don’t know about some of the other services. One ActivityPub-based system doing well doesn’t mean another will, and some have not a lot of userbase.

If the major social media companies still exist by then, I think it will still be the same as it is now. Maybe a bit more users, but still a minority in the space.

Dead

If we can fix federation we should be ruling the internet. If we cant then we will be doomed to go out wirh a wimper.

Someone needs to establish some sort of non profit that has the simple goal of getting the whole fediverse to play nice with eachother. An account should be a private key i hold. Federated messages should be signed as messages not fucking http requests so the can be forwarded.

Either:

• continuing to languish in obscurity with its rough-around-the-edges UX that fails to draw in anyone except self-sufficient computer savvy types who smugly proclaim they like it that way while impatiently tapping their feet and glancing at their wristwatches waiting for mainstream socials to collapse already, or
• wildly thriving, but dominated by an oligopoly of major breakout platforms that dominate the rest of the ecosystem, subtly altering it over the course of many small, tolerable nudges to the point that it hardly resemble what anyone who is currently here liked about it in the first place.

My money is on the former.

Mastodon will still be the biggest fediverse service. It will remain a niche player in the microblog world, as Bluesky gradually becomes the big player by stealing users from the platform formerly known as Twitter.

The rest of the federverse will (hopefully) coalesce around fewer projects. Development is massively fragmented right now. I’m very curious to see which projects flourish, and which projects die.

I do not expect the federverse to unseat large corporate social media and become home to the masses. And I’m okay with that.

Either dead or a niche as it is now.

I think in five years we will just call it the Fediverse instead of giving the Zuck any claim.

I expect it won’t be that different and will remain niche for the foreseeable future. Works for me.

Reddit 2.0

This is a bit of a long reach, but I can see it switching to ATProto, like Bluesky. The fact that identity, hosting and moderation are all done by the same person in ActivityPub is a big cause of many issues and drama on Mastodon. I think ATProto would fix it, and give access to everyone on Bluesky as well.

Usenet?