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Cake day: July 1st, 2023

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  • And who’s going to do that as long as the US extends endless military and financial support? Bibi slaughtered tens of thousands of children with nothing more than a furrowed brow at the State Department. We send Israel so many bombs that it exceeds our military transport capacity and we’re chartering private carriers for part of the load. At every turn, the US has confirmed to Israel that it can act with impunity and retain our guarantee of support.





  • It’s not that much of an outlier. Nate Silver is tracking Trump’s lead in Florida across numerous polls at +3%. With leaners, this poll found +2%. Off the average by one point with a 3.5% margin of error. Which is to say, well in line with other results.

    The article is sensationalistic and likely wrong in portraying that as a toss-up or close to tied. Trump won Florida in 2020 by +3%. A result that suggests he has a similar lead suggests that he’ll win by about as much as he did in 2020.

    Silver has seven recent polls that inform the Florida average. Not a single one shows Harris ahead. Trump has also outperformed his polling in both of the last two contests, so his actual lead in Florida may be greater than the polling average suggests, but there is nothing to suggest Harris is ahead or likely to pull ahead.

    Trump is likely to win Florida. The race still hinges primarily on Pennsylvania. Harris is not gaining ground. The race is locked in essentially a dead heat, with a tiny edge for Harris if you believe the polls and a tiny edge for Trump if you believe he’ll again outperform the polls.

    I detest these articles and the conspiratorial side of me thinks they’re planted by the right to encourage complacency among Democratic voters. This election is as close as they come and requires everyone to show up and vote.


  • There are two definitions of Semitic peoples, one of which is accurate and still in use and another of which is obsolete race science.

    Ancient Semitic peoples were a real and well-attested ethnolinguistic group of speakers of proto-Semitic, a branch of the Afroasiatic language family that evolved into Arabic, Hebrew, Aramaic, Amharic, and other languages. The emergence, distribution and development of these languages in the 3rd millennium BC is of great historical importance as Akkadian, the language of ancient Babylon, accounts for some of our earliest examples of written language in ancient Mesopotamia.

    The obsolete definition was constructed by German pseudo-historians in the 1700s and 1800s as a way to distinguish Jews, Arabs, and other peoples from “Aryan” whites, which of course influenced the development of Nazi ideology and antisemitism in the sense of discrimination against Jews.

    So there’s a real and important definition here if we’re talking about the languages and cultures of ancient Mesopotamia, and a modern definition that was invented by German racists to justify their purported superiority over other “races.”