Hi All - it’s been a while, but kbin (seems) to be up and running again!
This is a gift article from the Economist. The content is below:
Donald trump’s date with Manhattan Criminal Court is not over yet. Next comes his punishment for falsifying business records in the first degree. In days or weeks Mr Trump will sit for an interview with a probation officer, a ritual that informs every sentence. Routine questions will be put to him. How are his health and home life? Describe friends and associates—are any, by chance, gang members? Then the kicker: does the defendant take responsibility for his crimes?
The short, polite answer is absolutely not. To no one’s surprise Mr Trump assailed the verdict that came down on May 30th, as did practically every Republican with ambition. In lockstep they attacked the proceedings as a rigged show-trial and as election interference by a Democratic district attorney, Alvin Bragg, whom House Republicans now want to haul before Congress. “Anyone who defends this verdict is a danger to you and your family,” said Tucker Carlson, a right-wing commentator. Donations to the Trump campaign surged. WinRed, a Republican fundraising site, briefly crashed.
Joe Biden got a slight bump in several post-conviction polls, though this may be fleeting and Mr Trump still leads. Really, it is too early to discern the impact, and measuring small shifts accurately is hard. More noteworthy is the Republicans’ capacity to rationalise behaviour that until recently they had considered beyond the pale. The share who told YouGov, a pollster, that a convicted felon should be allowed to serve as president rose from 17% to 58% between April and June (see chart).
Indeed, there are reasons to be sceptical that a trial about a pay-off to a porn star will change many minds. The charges were minor and the story at its centre was old news. Mr Trump has weathered an impeachment, controversy over the storming of the Capitol, then another impeachment. Other events in the five months before the election will overtake this: there will be debates, conventions, a vice-presidential pick by Mr Trump. Not to mention the fact that the Biden family faces its own legal travails. Hunter Biden, the president’s son, is on trial in Delaware for allegedly lying about his drug use while buying a handgun, and could go to prison if convicted.
Still, in a close election that will be decided in a few states, even slight shifts matter. The verdict will strengthen Mr Biden’s case that the other guy is unfit to lead. And Mr Trump’s remaining legal jeopardy is considerable and could get worse.
One unknown is his sentence in Manhattan. On July 11th—four days before the Republican National Convention—Juan Merchan, the judge who oversaw the trial, will decide between prison, probation or an unconditional discharge, meaning no penalty at all. Each of the 34 counts of falsifying records carries a maximum prison term of four years. Judges weigh up factors like a defendant’s remorse and respect for the rule of law. Here Mr Trump scores abysmally: he called the judge a “devil” after the conviction. During the trial he repeatedly violated a gag order that barred him from attacking witnesses.
Any ordinary defendant so contemptuous of the court would have it coming. Working in Mr Trump’s favour, however, is the fact that he is a first-time, non-violent felon who happens to be running for president. Prison time looks highly doubtful. More likely is probation, involving regular check-ins with an officer, or a discharge. There could be a community-service requirement; collecting rubbish is a common one. In the unlikely scenario that Mr Trump gets a jail sentence, it would not start until after his appeals had been exhausted, in several years’ time.
Hunted and Hunter
Lest anyone forget, Mr Trump faces 54 more felony counts in three other cases. All are weightier than the Manhattan prosecution; he denies wrongdoing in each. Jack Smith, a special counsel in the Department of Justice, brought two. His case in Florida, over the alleged mishandling of classified documents, is barely moving because of the plodding pace of proceedings under a Trump-appointed judge. A state case about alleged election interference in Georgia has been paused while the district attorney who launched it is investigated for having an affair with a former member of her team. That leaves Mr Smith’s second indictment, also about the 2020 election, as the only one with a very faint possibility of going to trial before voters give their own verdict in November.
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On an added note, it’s really, really sad that candidate and former President Trump’s 34 felony convictions are holding less sway with conservative voters than the president’s son’s gun trial.
When it’s their guy, the whole system is corrupt. But when it’s the other guys son, it’s working just fine (and, apparently, an indictment on President Biden himself.)
Furthermore, many of the conservatives cheering for Hunter Biden’s conviction are the same people who think there should be no rules surrounding guns.
Just more evidence (on top of a mountain of evidence) that republicans see this all as a team sport and there is no underlying logic other than “libs bad.”