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Cake day: July 11th, 2024

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  • If colonialism has made those countries poor, then they should have gotten rich once they were no longer part of a colonial empire. At the same time countries which had large colonial empires should have gotten poor, when loosing their empire.

    What we mostly see is that this is not the case. Portugal got rich after its empire collapsed. Spain was about as rich as its former colonies for a long time. France and the UK did not collapse after loosing their colonies. There are rich countries, which never did have many colonies or only small ones for a limited time, like Germany, Scandinavia or Switzerland. You also have Oman, which did not get rich despite having had colonies. We also have Africa, which only has Botswana as a country genuinly benefiting from no longer being a colony. However that was after diamonds were found inside Botswana shortly after independence. Funnily enough Botswana also asked to be a colony. Everybody else more or less failed to get rich.

    That is not to say that colonial empires should not pay for crimes they comitted or return stolen artifacts. The benefits of colonialism were mostly going to a small elite in the colonial countries and cost the states a lot of resources, which in many cases would have been better spend on other projects.




  • Russia has very few regional bases of power. Most of Russia is controlled by the Kremlin pretty directly and the parts of Russia lacking direct control also lack nukes. So the most likely option is a bit of maybe even violent infighting in the Kremlin and then the victor rules Russia. The Kremlin would also control nukes, so China is unlikely to invade.

    Speaking of nukes, there are 8 launch sites for ICBMs, 3 nuclear submarine naval bases with nukes and two air bases with long range bombers aremed with nukes. So 13 locations need to be controlled. That seems rather possible to me. So honestly I doubt it will be too bad.

    Ukraine has seen what the Russians are willing to do to Ukraine, so they themself will try to become part of NATO or the EU as much and as soon as possible. So it is pretty much NATO/EU or Ukraine building nukes, probably even both.

    Russia would be weakend and needs some time to rebuilt. A defeat would mean that reconstruction period would take a long time. Looking at demographics and Russias economy maybe never.









  • Erstmal verhindert es, dass Klimaschutzgesetze aufgehoben werden oder macht es wenigstens schwerer. Vorallem das Heizungsgesetz wäre in vier Jahren voll in Kraft und das Verbrennerverbot auf EU Ebene wird schwer zu entfernen sein.

    Dann hat man auch noch Minister und die können einiges erreichen. Zum Beispiel sind die riesigen Ausschreibungen von Offshore Wind, Auslegung von Gesetzen um Erneuerbare schneller bauen zu könne, man kann bei Förderungen die Anträge entsprechend Grüner umstellen, die Bundesnetzagentur ist in der Lage einiges beim Stromnetz in eine sinnvolle Richtung zu leiten, viele Regulierungen und Normen kommen von den Behörden, Baerbock hat Leopard2 durch ein Menge Tricks mit den Amis an die Ukraine geliefert und da gibt es noch mehr. Es ist nicht der eine große Wurf, sondern viele kleine Dinge, die man da verbessern kann. Gerade der Verkehrsminister wäre für die Grünen extremst interessant.

    Ich glaube aber der größte Vorteil liegt darin, dass die Union sich nicht zu laut über die Grünen beschweren kann. Schwarz-Grün stärkt tatsächlich oft die Grünen.